Scientists say they have launch a possible geographical zone in the San Andreas fracture that could be the starting point for the next big earthquake to rock California .
That earthquake is often refer to as “ The Big One ” , but no one is quite certain when it ’s going to occur . What we do know , though , is that it ’s go to bepretty ruinous .
In this study , print in the journalLithosphere , a squad led by Dr Susanne Jänecke from Utah State University examined the southern 30 kilometre ( 19 miles ) of the fault . The integral matter sweep about 1,300 km ( 800 land mile ) .
They found that this region was a “ highly faulted ” intensity of rock , between about 1 and 4 kilometers ( 0.6 and 2.5 miles ) astray . It was regulate as a sheared ladder - like social organisation , known as a Durmid structure , extending about 3 to 5 kilometre ( 1.9 to 3.1 stat mi ) into Earth .
They said this shift structure extends from the main part of the fault in the northeast to a newly describe East Shoreline fault ( ESF ) to the southwest , which was previously strange . This parallels the main San Andreas fault ( mSAF ) for about 100 kilometers ( 62 geographical mile ) .
“ It is not clear how preceding earthquakes interact with this well - organized multi - fault structure , and , notes Jänecke , this makes next behavior hard to foretell , ” astatementfrom the Geological Society of America said . “ The mSAF was the only dynamic fault considered by the geoscience community of interests in this crucial area prior to our detailed study . ”
Ladder - like fault such as this can be tremendous , at least 25 kilometers ( 16 miles ) wide and 150 kilometre ( 93 miles ) long . When they fail , they can do so in “ step-by-step mode ” , with cascading falling out as they interact . The squad note that such complicated faults are badly understood , and need to be researched more to see what sort of peril they pose .
Earlier this workweek another field of study also found that “ dull earthquake ” could pose a job . Published inNature Geoscience , it suggested that parts of the fault were moving a few centimetre every twelvemonth , hinting at “ stick around - and - slipperiness movement ” that release energy over a period of months .
The risk of an earthquake in California is ever - present , and while studies such as these assistant better predict when one might fall out , there is still much we do n’t know .
" Based on current meter - sovereign models , there ’s a 75 % opportunity for an earthquake of magnitude 7 or larger in both northern and southern California within next 30 years , " said Mostafa Khoshmanesh from Arizona State University , pass source on the Nature Geoscience paper , in a instruction .
